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NYSE 200-day Market Breadth & Decline Probability
I was intrigued by the preponderance of on-line news stories regarding Tom Lee's "near-perfect" indicator for 4% or greater market declines in the S&P 500 over the coming month--a decline in the number of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average to 50% of the total NYSE stocks. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/28/an-indicator-with-a-nearly-perfect-track-record-is-predicting-a-stock-market-pullback.html
It looks like this number is tabulated differently on stockcharts.com than on barcharts.com. But any thoughts on this indicator?
I'm looking for someone with a quantitative bent to backtest what market-breadth might predict about the S&P 500 (whether certain levels are associated with veritable probabilities of declines. Of note, CXO Advisory recently posted an article indicating these appears to be a near-futile enterprise, but the 200-day of all NYSE stocks was not part of their examination so far as I can tell.