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Approach for forecasting extent of rally?
I have seen articles over the years about technical approaches ('rules-of-thumb?') to extrapolate from prior price patterns and estimate the likely extent of a rally. With the S&P 500 in consolidation following the 2000 high at about 1500, and with a second top at about 1500 in 2007, that index is now nearly double that level – near 3,000. Can anyone remind me of the approach I have seen previously that estimates where the top may lie? Thanks!
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https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory
An older and maybe easier method is Point and Figure counts:
https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_charts:pnf_horizontal_count
Wyckoff incorporated P&F horizontal count into his method as well:
https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff_market_analysis
Any of these methods probably work best on seasoned (not new issues), high volume, institutionally traded instruments.