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SCTR Scores

Based on your experience and studies - is it better to buy a stock whose SCTR recently breaks above 60, because of more potential gains or is it better to buy a stock ranked in the high 80's or 90's? I have not been able to find an article in the system that shows the historical returns over any time period for any particular score range. Any help would be appreciate.

Comments

  • markdmarkd ✭✭✭
    I would say there is a great deal of variation in SCTR behaviors. For some stocks, SCTR gets up to 90ish and keeps knocking on the ceiling as the stock keeps climbing (BA). For other stocks, SCTR wiggles around in the 30s and 40s for a while, then breaks 50 and its off to the races, at least for a while (FOXA). It's not uncommon for stocks to peak in the 80s and 90s instead of settling into an extended trend (TGT ?).

    It's probably worth checking out stocks that cross above 50 or 60 on the SCTR scale, but you need other tools to decide whether it's a good trade. One that I've come to like is Price Performance with 63 day moving average or RS - the price performance ratio is between the symbol and its INDUSTRY.

    So, for instance, FOXA is assigned to the Entertainment industry (a cyclical), so the price performance indicator would be FOXA:$DJUSBC - or, you can use the generic symbols $SYMBOL:$INDUSTRY. Then in advanced option add a simple MA 63.

    If you set up a nine month or so chart with this indicator, you will see from May to September the RS line (the price performance ration values) was mostly below its falling MA 63. Then in October the RS line edged over the MA while price seemed to stay flat. Then in November the stock broke out for a nice 10-11 point run.

    Meanwhile, SCTR didn't tell you much (there is a divergence -price drops in October and SCTR does not - but its hard to see). So, Price Performance gives you a little heads up (RS getting above and staying above its falling MA) that SCTR doesn't.

    Of course this is a cherry-picked example. Stocks can rise when RS is falling (that means other stocks in the same industry are rising more, so maybe you should look there). But when it appears, it seems to work reasonably well fairly often.
  • Thank you!
  • Hello Markd. Is it possible to scan for % Change in SCTR value? Thanks. Ivan
  • markdmarkd ✭✭✭
    edited February 9
    You can't scan for a list of differences because the scan engine returns only symbols, not numbers. But if you choose a threshold per cent change, you can scan for symbols that meet that change. For instance, suppose you want symbols that improved their SCTR by at least 5 per cent in the last month:


    and [SCTR > 21 days ago SCTR * 1.05]


    If you want symbols that have deteriorated, you would multiply by a value less than 1, like .95 or whatever and change the ">" to "<".
  • Thanks Mark , I will try this. Regards.
  • Hi Mark, I tried this and added another filter for Volume but it's ignoring the volume expression. What am I doing wrong? Thanks.

    [type is stock] and [exchange is tsx]
    and [group is not etf]
    and [SCTR > 7 days ago SCTR * 1.10]
    and [daily sma(10,daily volume) > 10000]
  • markdmarkd ✭✭✭
    seems to be right.

    You can test it by adding this line

    rank by sma(10, volume)

    Then sort results on the last results column both ways

    lowest value is 10087.469, which is > 10000

    The volume number you specify should be the same length as the volume reported, not truncated like market cap - so you are asking for average (AVERAGE - not any particular bar) volume over ten thousand shares.

    run the scan as of last close, not most recent update to get the same result.
  • Hi Mark. I re-ran after today's close and got more reasonable result as you indicated above.
  • Mark - any chance I could visit with you off-line? john.p.wright@ms.com
  • markdmarkd ✭✭✭
    Hi @JPW,

    Sorry, I only do answers on the forum. I get enough requests that it would take up too much of my time. Also, a question that one person has probably many others do, too, so the forum is much more efficient. The forum is pretty anonymous, so if you are comfortable doing so, ask away (maybe under another pseudonym now).

    I don't know what kinds of questions you have in mind, but if you were thinking I could give actual buy/sell advice (this is addressed to others as well) for your particular circumstances, I'm not qualified to do that and would not want the responsibility for doing so. My purpose here is to help people find their own way, not to suggest what they should or should not do with their money. Hope that helps.
  • another fun SCTR option is to scan for SCTR over time.

    [min(200, SCTR.mid) > 50]

    will give you MidCap stocks that have maintained a SCTR greater than 50 over the last 200 days.
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