New Members: Be sure to confirm your email address by clicking on the link that was sent to your email inbox. You will not be able to post messages until you click that link.
Feed back on Trading Startegy
I have been working for a few weeks on a new trading strategy.
The strategy is based on monthly closing of QQQ.
It is based mostly on a bok I read, their strategy uses monthly closes of SPY's and ATR.
I added some signals: crossing of lower BB 12,3 , combination of WRSI, Full Stochastics and MACD, and $NAA200R crossing from below.
Entries=All entries were based on monthly closing price
1-$NAA200R crossing the 20 line from below
2-QQQ closing above mid BB.
3- 3 Oscillators signaling by crossing their oversold band from below
Exits & shorting=All exits were based on monthly closing price, ending short trades was a times based on stop losses being hit, subsequent reversal into a long trade was based on monthly closing price.
IGNORE ALL EXIT SIGNALS IF ATR FLAT OR DOWN, EXIT ONLY IF ATR IS UP
1-QQQ closing below mid BB
2-3 oscillators crossing oversold line from above, shorts always with stop loss(not waiting until months end.
I backtested the strategy from 2002 to 12/201startin with an original 100$ investment, I did it multiple times.
The math was very tricky. I got at different results, but they were all good, ranging from the 100$ becoming 500$ to 1100$.
The best results were with the strategy described above (prior strategies did not have stop losses for short trades,
I backtested in real time (I started at the end of 2002 and added 1 week at a time so I would not know what came ahead.
The results were:
100$ in 11/2002 became 1145$ in 12/2018(trading long and short.
There were 10 total trades: 7 winning and 3 losers.All 5 long trades were winners, of the 5 short trades 2 were winners and 3 were losers.
Investin on QQQ's in 11/2002 and holing until 12/2018 100$ became 530$
Long trades only 100$ became 889$
Best long trade 87.59% 11/2002-12/2007
Short trades only 100$ became 129$, most short trades were loses less than 15%, but some of the successful ones were massive ( 2007-008).
Best short trade 37.97% from 12/2007-04/2009
As you can imagne this being a trend following strategy gave great results in bulls & bears, but not great in sideways markets.
I have never developed a technical trading strategy before, I would greatly appreciate feedback.
Thanks in advance