Approach for forecasting extent of rally?

ETFOptimize

I have seen articles over the years about technical approaches ('rules-of-thumb?') to extrapolate from prior price patterns and estimate the likely extent of a rally. With the S&P 500 in consolidation following the 2000 high at about 1500, and with a second top at about 1500 in 2007, that index is now nearly double that level – near 3,000. Can anyone remind me of the approach I have seen previously that estimates where the top may lie? Thanks!

markd

Probably the most well known, but most challenging, technical method for forecasting price movements is Elliott Wave, explained here:

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory

An older and maybe easier method is Point and Figure counts:

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:pnf_charts:pnf_horizontal_count

Wyckoff incorporated P&F horizontal count into his method as well:

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff_market_analysis

Any of these methods probably work best on seasoned (not new issues), high volume, institutionally traded instruments.