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Today 2/2/15, there is a really low bullish % price on $BPSPX, 4.71, abnormally low. What caused it?

BillyToroBillyToro ✭
in Other Charting Tools
It is many standard deviations away from it s average. If the point and figure chart is based on many stocks, like the index, how can it possibly print something so far away from its arithmetic mean?

Answers

  • BillyToroBillyToro ✭
    Additionally, I see a low, yet not as drastic, price on $BPCOMPQ. I do not see a similar problem with other bullish percent indicators such as $BPINDU or $BPNDX.
  • KevoKevo ✭
    Real Estate and REITs bucked the trend and dropped the last couple of days. This might be the culprit.

    The NASDAQ composite had a death cross in the last half of Jan 2015, whereas some of the other indexes had a death cross in December.

    Just FYI: $BPCOMPQ is not a price. I'm not sure what the unit name of measurement is.
  • BillyToroBillyToro ✭
    I appreciate the feedback Kevo, but it is a daily chart, so those historical events should already be "priced" in (I know it isn't exactly a price, but not sure what else to call it!). Thanks.
  • KevoKevo ✭
    edited February 2015
    The reason why $BPCOMPQ may have a lower value than some of the other related $BP indexes may be caused by small cap high beta stocks that are listed on the NASDAQ. For instance, $BPNDX has stable dividend paying non-financial large caps. $BPNDX can get pulled down if the whole market tanks.
  • markdmarkd mod
    I have no idea how the $BPs are calculated, but it does look like a data error. Possibly it's not if intraday prices reached some threshold level that turned the P&F signal temporarily bearish, or at least not bullish, and then closed above that threshold level. But I would shoot off a quick question to support asking if the data is correct. Data vendors sometimes fat-finger these things.
  • KevoKevo ✭
    Thanks @markd. Now that markd has mentioned this, I just recalled a recent post that may factor into this. Breadth data is audited overnight and the audit results are retro-applied the next business day. This could be an explanation.

    BTW, I was wondering how a 2 day drop in REITs could change the PnF buy signal!!?!? especially since it has not dropped below longer MAs. This could be the explanation. Thanks markd.
  • gordgord admin
    Yes this looks like an intraday data error, which appeared to happen around 10:30 am.

    You can check any of the bullish percent indexes by running a simple scan. The bullish percent is simply the percent of stocks in a group which have their P&F charts in buy signal mode.

    [group is SP500]
    and [PnF Buy Signal is true]

    After the close today this scan output 299 stocks.

    299/500 X 100 == 59.8 %

    This is exactly the closing number on the $BPSPX chart.

    If it is still on the chart tomorrow, I would drop a note to support. They maybe able to help, but I do know that the data venders are very concerned about the accuracy of the closing values, not so much about the intraday values.

    I believe the story goes EOD values are critical, intraday is just the wild west real time, you take what you get, ie they can't correct every error on the fly.
  • KevoKevo ✭
    Here is that mystifying 10:30 am again. This is the same time the retro-updates are applied from the previous night's breadth audit. Coincidence? I'm not so sure.... :o


    P.S. Thanks for clarifying: I did not realize this post question was based on an intraday value. Now that I think about it, 4.71 from a previous daily close of 62 is too much of a spread for BP.
  • gordgord admin
    Yep; it looks like the index data provider's picked it up in their audit, close now at 59.8 % with a daily low of 59.6%. (not the 4.7% that was shown on the charts intra-day.

    Kevo, I was looking at the evolving daily values, (ie; during market open), but to get a better idea of what was going on, I looked at the intra-day values down to a 1 min chart.

    This technique often helps identify obvious fat finger or data errors. If the extreme drop only happens for 1 min or less and low volume then its probably a one trade pricing error. Now if it happens over several mins or hours, with lots of trades happening every bar, then money is actually trading at these levels and the daily spike is probably real. The exchanges can unwind a few trades but not hundreds or thousands.
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