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$SPX Seasonality Chart closes up 53% of the time in August but loses 1.2% in August?

On a recent market message, $SPX was up 53% of the time in August and it had a percentage loss of -1.2% for August during the period of time from 1995 to 2014. How is it up 53% of the time, but it loses -1.2% during that period of time? It seems like I am missing something with this, or I don't fully understand. What is the difference between being up 53% of the time and percentage loss of -1.2% ? Maybe if someone can explain how these two are calculated, that might help to understand this better. Attached is the related screen shot. I have not seen this explained on SCC. Thanks. Any help would be appreciated.


  • Here's a link to the whole market message article by Arthur Hill.

    I would say that Arthur has it correct with his explanation in the text, excerpt below.
    The index rose just 53% of the time in August and the average gain was actually a loss (-1.2%). Even though the index advanced more often than it declined, the percentage gains were smaller than the percentage losses.
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