Winning Strategies

lscheriff

I been using Stockcharts for almost a year. I have tried different scans and checked different information on the site but have not been able to come up with a winning stock or strategy. Maybe you can suggest some ideas that might help. It seems when ever I pick a stock it does the opposite of my play. Need Help

markd

It's a very big subject, but if you are interested in a simple, short-term system, review this:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832

The system in the link above seems to work pretty well because it is simple and short term - it plays the short term dips in an established up trend.

This is a link to Chart School's article on trading strategies:

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading_strategies

Decide what kind of trader you want to be - how long do want to hold your trades, what kind of return do you want to get - a point or two in a few days, ten points in six weeks, 50% in six months to a year, etc. and choose from one of the strategies that suits your choice. Then follow it for while on paper for a few stocks (maybe about 20 altogether from four or five sectors, some large cap, some small cap), see what happens. But you have to be methodical and you have to give it long enough to be a fair trial.

lscheriff

Thanks for your help, Wrote a scan and see how it works.

aWebBiz

I have a profitable trading strategy that I posted in Public Charts about two weeks ago. It's called the Elder Impulse Stock Trading System. It is for swing traders. There is a lot of educational information there. There is also two Market Timers there. Timer #2 gave me a signal yesterday to sell all my long positions and go into cash.

I started trading with this trading system on Nov. 17. I have made 29 trades since Nov. 17. Twenty-four of those trades were profitable with an average gain of about 3.4%. Five of the trades were unprofitable for an average loss of about -1%.

I am a swing trader. Most stocks I buy I own for less than seven days.

The Elder Impulse System has been around since 2002. I use the basic system, but I have added a 5-Day moving average and the ADX. I have also created a system that allows me to find the best stocks in the best Industries in the best Sectors.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1068289

aWebBiz

Try that link again:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1068289

markd

Nice site - beautiful charts and easy-to-understand system.

aWebBiz

Thank you.

lmkwin

Nice list @aWebBiz . Love your layout and documentation and just very well done. I see some names on your list that showed PnF patterns that met my system requirements for Dynamic CSS Patterns. Example: ICHR



ICHR showed 3 or more CSS (Consecutive Sell Signals) on it's PnF chart. AFTER the CSS is shown, I then look for a column of X that is at least 7x's high. The CSS a sign of significant distribution. The 7xx column, a sign of significant accumulation. Further analysis required to determine just how significant it is, but the "pattern" is something I built my system around.

On ICHR the CSS showed at the end of 2018 (like a lot of stocks). The 7xx showed from 15-18 in January. This puts the buy range in at 16-21. Column topped out at 20 which makes it an 10xx column. After the 7xx is shown, I look for a reversal to O's and then back to X's for a "confirmation". This reversal should show up on the Close Only prices on the % trend PnF chart and/or the traditional scale 2 box reversal.

You can buy partial at the 7xx. Fill on the confirmation. Or just wait for confirmation. It always will, it just a question of where. I recommend having a position fully established by the level where the 11xx plot would be if that original 7xx column had continued higher. You can also substitute 2 columns of 6xx, as long as the 2nd column has a HIGHER bottom than the 1st. The 6xx columns need not be consecutive but both columns must be AFTER the CSS is shown.

My system isn't a trading system. History shows that it's best to hold onto stocks in bull markets that aren't behaving bearishly. Patience is a valuable component of my system. In my personal portfolio my average hold is over a year. Losing patterns (prints the O below the bottom X of the 7xx column) make up 15-20% of the total patterns on average.




GE (I don't think it's on your list) is another one that showed up around the same time frame. It's CSS took a few years to form.

I do have a Public List as well. It's the only Point and Figure chart list that I can tell in the Public Lists. I also maintain several portfolios for a study group on the Dorsey Wright website. This is actually the feeder for my Public List.

aWebBiz

Just about every stock in my list is losing momentum right now.

ICHR has an RRG rating of 'weakening' right now.

The top stocks in my list are AMD and BRKS. They are rated 'leading'. Like ICHR, they are in the Semiconductor Industry. The Semiconductor Industry is the fifth best leading Industry in the third best leading Sector XLK.

I don't trade stocks under $25, but GE is the top rated stock in the Diversified Industries. The Diversified Industries is the number one leading industry in the number two leading Sector XLI. I like AME in that group.

markd

@lmkwin , also a well-executed site and well-thought out method.

Here's the link for the curious, especially those who are long term oriented:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1175948/tenpp/1

lmkwin

Thanks @markd. It's definitely expected to be a long term strategy. For the most part, I use PnF charts because they work on the markets time frame, not my time frame. Market is always right and will do what it wants, when it wants. A decent Dynamic CSS Pattern will allow a month or three for entry.

A few "mentors" of mine said things like "You can't expect to get a multi-bagger if you can't hold on through minor corrections". Or my favorite " It never was my thinking that made me the big money for me. It always was my sitting."

@aWebBiz I agree that the momentum is waning a bit. The markets usually give 3 or 4 decent entry points a year. Individual stocks also tend to trace along with those decent entry time periods. Some a little ahead, and some a little behind of those periods. This year, on the SPX we've seen Jan/Feb, Jun/Jul, Sep/Oct as decent entry points. Will there be another? Possibly. Your system has a different time frame to take advantage of the movements inside of those periods.

AMD's last Dynamic CSS pattern was in May 2018 from 10-13,



and BRKS was in January 2019 from 24-30.




AME showed a failed Dynamic CSS Pattern from May 2018 on it's PnF chart that failed in Oct 2018. This would then put a more complex pattern of the system into play called the NBS. The NBS happened in Feb 2019 at 75. You can also see some Dave Landry "bow ties" on the chart. These are like Daryl Guppy patterns where the MA lines are spread and then move together and then spread again. The spreading is where momentum is stronger and moving closer together is where momentum is waning.

gbkrishna

@aWebBiz can you please check if your public list is still working. Looks like the link is broken. Thanks!!