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Bear market? I certainly don't think so at this point. If we take a 20% drop to mean entering bear market, there is a lot more to go before even starting the discussion. And if it happens quickly, it usuall resolves in the same manner. Or is it a normal and expected pullback? They happen in bull markets and there is still a lot more to go before we get there.
The monthly chart for $SPX with a 10% zigzag line added
A full 20% correction would be 4266 on the SP500 (based on the emini sp500 june contract), just below the starting low of the October - April up leg. A retracement to fib 62 of the October up leg would be 4660. Fib 62 (61.8) is a common retracement level. The fib 62 could be the target of a first down leg, and the October low a possible second down leg target.
But, based on the chart, a more likely target of the current down leg is the October up leg fib 50 retracement level at 4788, which coincides pretty closely with the July peak around 4800 (past peaks - i.e. broken resistance, become support). Whether we go into a bear would be determined by the up leg(s) from that point. If they don't make a new high before retracing below support, the market would usually go lower.
Not that I would take any position based on any of these observations, but fun to speculate.
I get a kick out of the headlines and pictures they throw out there to try and get attention The Great Bear Phase of Q2.
Nice thing about PnF charts is that you can put a SMA 1 on them and the line will bisect each column. Current Traditional scale PnF chart with all of the High Pole Columns highlighted at the High Pole Warning level. A High Pole Warning is an 50% retracement of the X column. Note the difference in appearance betwen the bear market in 2022 and the current bull market
For added reference, the prior bear market in 2020 produced a series of High Pole Columns. Most retraced a certain extent, which is normal and to be expected. When you see a High Pole Column, it rarely makes sense to initiate positions until the retracement is shown. The retracement may show on a different scale, but it's usually there upon review of the charts.
Greetings all Just an update on prior chart [ty for the post lmkwin ;-)] vBTL [Blue Vertical Trend Line] located date of above prior chart +++++++++ side note note the Dividend +++++++++
Sorry brother, musta missed the email of this reply. His mother "Akee" was an AKC registered 115 pound Malamute and his father "Ozzie" was a 215 pound Malamute Tinberwolf blend [same coloring for both parents, but Ozzie frigging paws were twice the size of hers man.
I had pick of the litter When I lived in Kalispell MT for $ 400.00 bux = what a steal > litter was 8 with 5 B/W'd and 3 Red
Raised him "everything is a friend", almost bit me in the butt one time while I was running him, {I was in car and let him run etc} he stopped up against a big tree w/a bush = and they were just sniffing noses
BABY BLACK BEAR = they got along, but for sure ya know Mama was close also -smile-
I thought there was some wild in that face. Thanks.
Don't wanna mess with mama bear. I've been watching some trail cam channels on Youtube. One was deep woods NW Minnesota. Bears, wolves, cats (mountain and lynx), deer, quail (I think). Fascinating. Another was a waterhole in Arizona high country. All the animals very cautious approaching and drinking. Not the bear. She owned it.
Comments
The monthly chart for $SPX with a 10% zigzag line added
But, based on the chart, a more likely target of the current down leg is the October up leg fib 50 retracement level at 4788, which coincides pretty closely with the July peak around 4800 (past peaks - i.e. broken resistance, become support). Whether we go into a bear would be determined by the up leg(s) from that point. If they don't make a new high before retracing below support, the market would usually go lower.
Not that I would take any position based on any of these observations, but fun to speculate.
Nice thing about PnF charts is that you can put a SMA 1 on them and the line will bisect each column.
Current Traditional scale PnF chart with all of the High Pole Columns highlighted at the High Pole Warning level. A High Pole Warning is an 50% retracement of the X column. Note the difference in appearance betwen the bear market in 2022 and the current bull market
For added reference, the prior bear market in 2020 produced a series of High Pole Columns. Most retraced a certain extent, which is normal and to be expected. When you see a High Pole Column, it rarely makes sense to initiate positions until the retracement is shown. The retracement may show on a different scale, but it's usually there upon review of the charts.
Just an update on prior chart [ty for the post lmkwin ;-)]
vBTL [Blue Vertical Trend Line] located date of above prior chart
+++++++++
side note note the Dividend
+++++++++
Repeat picture.
Fluctuation is coming
Sorry brother, musta missed the email of this reply. His mother "Akee" was an AKC registered 115 pound Malamute and his father "Ozzie" was a 215 pound Malamute Tinberwolf blend [same coloring for both parents, but Ozzie frigging paws were twice the size of hers man.
I had pick of the litter When I lived in Kalispell MT for $ 400.00 bux = what a steal > litter was 8 with 5 B/W'd and 3 Red
Raised him "everything is a friend", almost bit me in the butt one time while I was running him, {I was in car and let him run etc} he stopped up against a big tree w/a bush = and they were just sniffing noses
BABY BLACK BEAR = they got along, but for sure ya know Mama was close also -smile-
Don't wanna mess with mama bear. I've been watching some trail cam channels on Youtube. One was deep woods NW Minnesota. Bears, wolves, cats (mountain and lynx), deer, quail (I think). Fascinating. Another was a waterhole in Arizona high country. All the animals very cautious approaching and drinking. Not the bear. She owned it.
This is "real" smile
https://youtube.com/watch?v=pGgM3c1e8vQ